It looks more-and-more like Google is going to offer a Google branded (HTC made) phone in January.  If you don’t keep up on tech, it is going to look pretty much like an iphone. A lot of people are asking what does this mean for the mobile segment, the iPhone, and especially the Android platform.  Here are my thoughts.

First off, I think this is a classic example of market segmentation.  There is no question in my mind that device has its cross hairs firmly fixed on the iPhone.  Google sees a segment, lets call it the high-end smart phone segment, with a single competitor.  Now, I know a lot of people think that this segment has more than one player.  But, lets be honest, there is really only one phone on the market right now that people are willing to consistently shell out $199 for, and that is the iPhone 3GS.  Back to the Google phone.  One thing is apparent in this segment, brand matters.  Google knows this and that is why they are throwing their name behind a new phone in this segment.

So, lets assume what I said above is true:  Google aims to compete directly with the iPhone 3Gs (and the iPhone 4) in the high-end smartphone segment.  How exactly will they compete and, more importantly, how well will they do?  I think at the beginning Google is going to compete on features and on cost-of-ownership.  The Google phone is going to feature a lot of what the Droid already does:  multi-tasking, built-in navigation, apps, etc.  Google knows that on a feature-for-feature basis, they will fair pretty well.  But, lets be honest, the iPhone 4 will probably match most of these on its release.  I think the killer feature for the Google phone will be built-in, fully integrated Google Voice with free wi-fi calling, free SMS, and host of other features that I don’t think any mobile OS has an answer for, not even Apple.  This is such a huge advantage because it will probably lower most phone bills by at least $10-20 per month giving the Google phone a huge advantage in lifetime cost-of-ownership.

How well will the phone do?  I think the wild card here is the iPhone UX.  Most people that have an iPhone are pretty passionate about this aspect of the phone.  And, honestly, I don’t see a whole lot of people switching.  People that have the iPhone already pay a ton of money to own one, so cost-of-ownership probably will not be a big deal to them.  I do think that a new Google phone will get a large percentage of new smart phone owners, and a large percentage of budget conscious smart phone owners.  Honestly, I would not be surprised if it gobbles up 1-3% of smart phone sales in its first year.

What does this mean for HTC, Sony Ericsson, Samsung, and other smart phone manufacturers?   I do not necessarily look at this as a death blow to the Android platform.  In fact, I think it could be a boon for the low to medium end segments of the market.  A successful Google phone would bring tons of developers to the platform, and make the free to $150 Android phones pretty appealing to a large number of consumers.  I also think that this is a blessing in disguise for Microsoft Phone OS.  Staying out of the branded phone business could make them seem pretty appealing as long as Windows Mobile 7 is not a flop.

What are your thoughts?

As I was reading about the ChromeOS announcement on Engadget and Techcrunch this afternoon and early evening, my reaction slowly went from “Is that it?” to “Huh?” to “That is brilliant”.  And, finally I settled on my overall opinion of the announcement—ChromeOS is brilliant, but a couple years too early.

On the surface, the OS looks pretty good.   The early UI concept video shows an intuitive interface, although I think it needs a lot of work.  The two big UI issues I noticed were the panels and the window management.  I thought how the panels hovered above the browser was pretty annoying.  And, the window switching seemed like an afterthought.   I really didn’t like how there is no indication on the screen on how many windows you have open.

The idea behind the OS itself is pretty brilliant—the browser is the OS.   Your images would be stored on Flickr.  Your music would come from GrooveShark.  Your email and documents would come from Gmail, Office Live, etc.  And best of all, the OS will run on extremely cheap hardware.  This means that we could potentially have it running on $100 laptops, tablets, and MIDs.

But, like I said at the beginning, the idea is still a couple years too early.  I think Gizmodo did the best job of laying out the requirements for this new OS to be successful.  The Internet needs to be ubiquitous, it needs to be faster, and web applications need to be better.  In the short term, I don’t think Google OS will be too useful to me.  I cannot develop on it.  I cannot run Photoshop on it.  And, I really don’t want to do word processing on it.  All these tasks are still better on Windows.  With that said, I could definitely see myself running this OS on a complementary device in the near future.  For example, if you stuck it on a multi-touch tablet for $200, it could be a killer device.  In the long term, I think that ChromeOS has the potential to be a large competitor in the OS market, because it is perfectly positioned to take full advantage of the coming advances in web technology.

That was quick, pundits are already predicting ChromeOS to be a failure. I don’t agree.  Like I said, for this OS to be successful in the short term, it has to be on really cheap, single purpose hardware.  Listen Google, put this on $200 multi-touch tablet and people will buy it.

I just got done reading Jon Gruber’s article The OS Opportunity.  In his article, Gruber posits that now is the time for large companies, such as Dell, to start making and marketing their own consumer desktop OS.   He references the success Apple has had doing so.  And his main point of reason is that it is the only way these companies can successfully differentiate.

Seems like a reasonable assertion, right?   Sure, Apple as of late has had a lot of success by coupling hardware and software in the mobile market.  And, even has had a modest level of success doing so in the consumer PC market.  But, lets not so easily forget, that this strategy almost bankrupted the company in the 90s.  It was the iPod and its logical extension, the iPhone, that saved the company.  These devices succeeded because they were new, innovative, and most importantly, disruptive.

By that same measure, does it make sense for a company like Dell to have its own OS?  I would argue a resounding “no” (although, I might be in the minority).  I think this is an incredibly dumb idea for two reasons.  The first is that a new desktop OS is not at all disruptive (unless you look at it from the consumer perspective).   The desktop OS market is extremely mature and a new entry will at the minimum have to match the existing competitors.  The second reason is that building an OS is in no way part of most hardware vendors core competency.  The investment to build a new OS would take away from where these companies should be focusing—building new an innovative form factors using Window 7, Android, and the soon to be announced Google Chrome OS.

As today is the consumer release of Windows 7, I thought I would take a few minutes to share my thoughts.  I have been using Windows 7 for a number of months now.  I started on the beta and soon after moved to the RC.  In my experience, this is not only the best Windows to date, but the best OS out on the market right now.

Yeah, that is pretty big praise.  So, let me qualify it a bit.  In the past year, I have used a number of flavors of Linux and purchased my first OSX machine.  Linux is cool, but the overall experience lags behind its closed source rivals.  I can go on-and-on about how much I like OSX.  It’s stable, beautiful, and simple.  But when it comes to taking care of business, it falls far behind Windows 7.   The new taskbar, peak, snap, and alt-tab features have really upped the ante in OS usability.  When I use the OS, I just feel more productive; and to me, that is the holy grail of OS value.

Have you used Windows 7 yet?  What are your thoughts?

One of my big purchases for next year is going to be a new phone.  So, I thought I would take a few minutes to compile a list of potential suitors for my next mobile device.  The list below is ordered in terms of my excitement level for a phone.

1.  Droid—Motorola’s Droid has quickly risen to the top of my list.  Android 2.0 is looking much better than its predecessors.  Right now, it seems to have everything I am looking for:  a big screen, a fast processor, a QWERTY keboard, and a solid OS with a good browser and a lot of apps.  Since this device has still not been extensively reviewed, I am curious as to how it looks in person and how well the keyboard works.

2. Sony Xperia X3—This device is rumored to be Sony’s first Android phone.  The Xperia X3 1-ups the Droid in form and its UI leaks look pretty amazing.  The big negative for this device is that I do not think it has a QWERTY keyboard.

3. Nokia N900 and N920—If you haven’t watched videos of Maemo 5, then you better hit up youtube.  It is one of the most promising mobile platforms because it features true multi-tasking and a Firefox browser that actually supports flash (good for youtube, bad for ads).  The N900 is the first device to sport Maemo 5 and it looks pretty sweet.  The main problems I have with the device is that (1) it is a from Nokia, and their overall OS strategy is a bit confusing and (2) it doesn’t support multi-touch.  Hopefully both these issues are rectified in 2010, allowing this device to move up my list.

4. iPhone—This is my number 4 phone in the list right now.  And if Droid and Sony’s Android devices are a bust, I could definitely see myself owning an iPhone.  It has the most cohesive UI and large third party app support.  My big problems with the device are that the home screen is pretty much useless less useful—an app menu as a home screen in 2010 seems a bit dated, and I am not a big fan of iTunes.  But, if the device continues to open up like the Mac has, I could definitely see myself owning one.

5. Blackberry Storm 2 or Bold 9700—I have used my friend’s Bold on a number of occasions and really dig it.  The UI is good, and it seems to handle the day-to-day phone operations really well.  I am leaning away from the Bold at this point, because  I think I want to try a new form factor.  The Storm 2 might suffice, but it is a tough sell (versus the iPhone) without a QWERTY keyboard.

Dark Horses—Given that I will not be buying a new device until early-to-mid 2010, there is potential for a few other options to creep in.  The first and most promising is a new Palm device.  I will definitely not be buying a Pre or a Pixie.  While I think Palm by far has the best mobile OS, I think the hardware sucks.  I would much rather have to type on an iPhone than on those rubber keys.  But, if Palm matches its awesome software with some better hardware in 2010, I could be converted to their Web OS platform.  The next darkhorse is Windows Mobile.  Like Palm, I will not be buying their current generation devices.  Windows Mobile 6.5 has the opposite problem as Palm.  They have great hardware, but bad software.  With that said, if Windows Mobile 7 launches early next year and features a better UI and Zune and/or Xbox integration, I would be quickly sold on the new platform.

So there is my top 5 potential phones.  What are yours?

From what I have been reading from Techcrunch and other sources, Google Voice is shaping up to be a killer app that replicates a lot of existing mobile phone technology such as voice mail, calling, and text messages over the existing 3G connection.  There is not a whole lot new technology-wise hear.  Skype has been doing this for years.  But, the big difference now is that (1) it is from Google, (2) they are giving you a phone number to replace your existing number, and (3) they are attempting to do this on the world’s most popular smart phones—the iphone and the blackberries.  What does this mean?  Long term, I think this might be a first step in turning a lot of these big providers (AT&T, Verizon, Sprint, etc.) into dumb 3G/4G pipes.  Meaning that (hypothetically) if WIFI and 3G/4G were reliable enough, you would not even need to pay for phone service or add-ons such as messaging.  You would just pay one rate for data and get all those services via Google (and hopefully other service providers).   Short term, I think we are going to see a lot of fighting from the wireless providers to prevent this from becoming a reality.  They already make a TON of money charging for voice, data, and wireless as separate services.  Although, most rational people realize that these services are, or could be, served over a single data connection in the near future.

Personally, I am all for Google Voice.  It creates competition in an area that has been void of it for years.  It has never made sense to me that year-after-year, voice and texting plans continue to get more expensive.  I think this could be the first step in creating real competition around phone services. What do you think?

To start, I am a big fan of the Zune.  The Zune hardware is definitely on par with (and arguably better than) its iPod and creative rivals.  And, it looks like the Zune HD will be a nice continuation of this product line.  But, the power of the Zune ecosystem is the marketplace.  For me, this was the biggest differentiator.  The Zune software is quite unique.  I find music to be one of the most creative and passionate mediums.  And, I think the marketplace reflects this with its unique while playing backgrounds, colorful player themes, and mixview (see more in the Gizmodo review).  You can really tell that the group that created it was really into music.  It really is a stark contrast when you compare it to other media players (most notably iTunes).

But, I think it is time for a change.  Recently, Palm announced the Pre.  And with the device, it announced a hack for it to support iTunes.  This got me thinking.  The first thought I had was (1) why would someone want to sync with iTunes when there were obviously better options out there, and (2) why are iTunes competitors not taking advantage of this growing problem.  The Pre is not alone.  I have an e71.  And while I can sync it to Windows Media player or Nokia’s own suite, I think it would be nice to sync it to my Zune marketplace.  I understand the DRM limitations, but I do not purchase DRM media.  So, I think for 90% of the users this would not be a problem.  With the growing number of smartphones and feature phones, I think it would be a no brainer for Zune to be the goto marketplace.  And, all Microsoft would have to do is provide an open-source (I know this would be tough) way to communicate between the two mediums (drivers, or whatnot).  And I guarantee that whether it was via enthusiasts or third-party manufacturers, the connection piece would be built without much effort from Microsoft.

Not possible?  Mozilla is already doing it with Songbird.  And, honestly, I am going to give it a shot.  But, it would be nice to see options.  And, allowing the Zune marketplace to sync with other third party devices would be my immediate choice.

So, I finally decided to get a smart phone. After a lot of research, I chose the Nokia E71. The decision was mainly based on the form factor and good reviews. Beyond that, I had never owned a Nokia product, nor even seen the Symbian S60 OS. So after using it a few days, what are my first impressions?  Honestly, I am impressed.  The build quality of the phone is great.  It actually feels substantial when you are holding it.  I have held a number of smart phones and few compare.  One thing that I was worried about was the keys.  They are quite small and tightly packed (as you can see in the photo above).  But, after using it for a few minutes, my worries subsided.  Each key actually is a bit rounded in the middle.  This makes it really easy to distinguish one from its neighbor.

So, what about the Symbian OS?  Honestly, I did not like the look of it a whole lot out of the box.  The icons were brightly colored and it looked like the designer tried to make a poor attempt at making the phone look consumer friendly.  However, I knew this going in and I quickly switched the theme to Noble Gray by Gabb.  This instantly gave the phone a more professional feel.  It is definitely made a world of difference.  As far as the pre-installed apps go, it is a mixed bag.  The built-in browser is surprisingly good.  So far, it renders all my regular destinations extremely well.  The email and messaging apps are decent.  And, the built-in maps app seems to be pretty good, but it looks like it requires a license to open most of the core functionality.  Because I rely heavily on GMail and other Google apps, I have primarily relied on the Google Mobile Apps suite for a lot of my email and maps needs.  Personally, I think the suite is a must-install for any E71 user.  Beyond the Google Apps suite, I have also installed Twibble as my default Twitter client.  It seems to work pretty well, so far.

One thing that was really important to me when making my smart phone decision was day-to-day usage of the phone.  And, this is really where the phone shines.  This phone was built around productivity.  If you want to send a text message or make a phone call, you simply start typing the name of your contact at the main screen.  This brings up a quick submenu of possible contacts.  From this submenu, you can send a new text or make a call.  There are also a number of shortcut keys built into the phone.  I have picked up a few already, and am learning new ones as I go.  Basically, this E71 makes it really easy to get common tasks done.

So overall, my first impressions of the phone are pretty positive.  Really, what I am most impressed with is the ability to customize the OS out-of-the-box.  So far, everything that I did not like about the device, I was able to change with little difficulty.

I just got done reading the editorial on Engadget Ten Reasons why Windows Mobile 6.5 misses the mark.  While a lot of these items (1, 3 and 4) could be grouped into a single complaint, Topolsky does make a number of valid arguments.  After what I have read, Microsoft really needs to (1) update the core software to run more efficiently and support new technologies such as capacitive touch, (2) fix some nagging interface issues, (3) allow for the OS to be more easily upgraded, and (4) better integrate in-house media technologies such as the Zune.  These are things we have come to expect with Windows and should expect on its mobile counterpart.  Given that the company has set an expectation of releasing the software by the end of the year, they still should have time to make these improvements.  I do disagree with almost everything Topolsky says in his fourth and tenth point.  From what I have seen, the new interface (including the honeycomb) looks great.  And, the home screen seems to be a pretty substantive innovation—allowing the user quick access to a number of common functions with a minimal set of steps.

The World Mobile Congress (or MWC for short) is finally here.  This is the big trade show where all the mobile phone producers start showing off their new goods for the upcoming year.  So far, we have seen a new version of Windows Mobile, a few new Android devices, and a bunch of other new phones.  Since we are about half way through, I figured I would throw up a quick post about my initial impressions.

Windows Mobile 6.5—On Monday, Microsoft showed off Windows Mobile 6.5.  The new version of the OS includes a new home screen, a new application selector screen, and a bunch of new ancillary pages (contacts, settings, etc.).  My first impression is that these new screens look really nice.  From an aesthetics point of view, it looks like the Windows Mobile platform is now on the same level as the iPhone, the G1, and the Blackberry offerings (depending on personal preference).  But, from a pure technological point of view, it does appear that WM6.5 still lags behind some of its competitors (notably the iPhone).  According to most early news, it appears that WM6.5 will only support resistive (versus capacitive) touch.  While there are arguments for one versus the other, my initial inclination would lean toward a preference for capacitive. With that said, I do not think that is a deal breaker for me, because I have always preferred a physical keyboard over a touchscreen.  So, if Microsoft can manage to port WM6.5 on a finger friendly device like the Epix or HTC Touch Pro and provide a few other compelling services (e.g. My Phone, Marketplace, and Zune), I would be sold.

Android—The first day of the MWC was a bit quiet on the Android front.  But, day two brought the HTC Magic.  This looks to be the second iteration of the G1 (the first Android phone).  This version is much better looking than its predecessor, but lacks the keyboard that made it appealing to me.  I personally do not like this form factor a whole lot, but I think this device marks the beginning of a wave of new handhelds loaded with Android.  Personally, I am pretty excited about this.  While I do not like the Android interface as much as WM6.5, I think the software behind the device is more promising.  It is integrated with all of Google’s services, which I use quite a lot.  And, it also supports Amazon MP3 (my favorite non-DRM music provider).  If HTC and other companies roll out improved form factors, the Android platform will definitely be on my short list when I start looking for a new phone later this year.

Other Devices—Of course there have been a number of other great devices shown at MWC this year.  My favorites so far (in no particular order) are the HTC Touch Pro 2, the Toshiba G01, the Nokia N86, the Sony Idou, and the HTC Touch Diamond 2.  If I had to buy a phone today it would be the HTC Touch Pro 2, (1) because it has a physical keyboard and a great screen, and (2) because according to Microsoft it will be upgradeable to WM6.5 in the future.